Spatio-temporal short-term wind forecast: A calibrated regime-switching method
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching Space-Time (RST) Method
With the global proliferation of wind power, accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological and statistical expertise to obtain accurate and calibrated, fully probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and wind power. The model formulation is parsimonious, yet takes account of all the salient ...
متن کاملA Regime Switching Independent Component Analysis Method for Temporal Data
A mixture of independent component analysis method for temporal data is presented in this paper. The method is derived by modeling the observations as a mixture of ICA (mICA). mICA model has been applied to data classification and image processing. However, it is hard to use mICA in assigning class memberships of temporal data. In the proposed method, memberships of the data are modified accord...
متن کاملVery Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Spatio-Temporal Lazy Learning
A wind speed forecast corresponds to an estimate of the upcoming production of a wind farm. The paper illustrates a variant of the Nearest Neighbor algorithm that yields wind speed forecasts, with a fast time resolution, for a (very) short time horizon. The proposed algorithm allows us to monitor a grid of wind farms, which collaborate by sharing information (i.e. wind speed measurements). It a...
متن کاملImproved Spatio-Temporal Linear Models for Very Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting
In this paper, the spatio-temporal (multi-channel) linear models, which use temporal and the neighbouring wind speed measurements around the target location, for the best short-term wind speed forecasting are investigated. Multi-channel autoregressive moving average (MARMA) models are formulated in matrix form and efficient linear prediction coefficient estimation techniques are first used and ...
متن کاملA Hybrid Method for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting
The accuracy of short-term wind speed prediction is very important for wind power generation. In this paper, a hybrid method combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), adaptive neural network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and seasonal auto-regression integrated moving average (SARIMA) is presented for short-term wind speed forecasting. The original wind speed series is decom...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Applied Statistics
سال: 2019
ISSN: 1932-6157
DOI: 10.1214/19-aoas1243